The quick answer to the above question, based on the market right now is “sideways with potential for seasonal bumps up and down”. Here is a mode specific outlook to allow you as a shipper to try and plan around and potentially change direction on your transportation plans.

Truckload Markets

• The Full Truckload Full Truckload (FTL) markets are a soft and relatively stable right now. Cass shows July shipments were down slightly month to month and Year-over-Year (YoY) the market is sluggish according to Logistics Management. Rates are spotty, with downward pressure overall. Potential upticks for the holiday season are possible, “but don’t count your chickens”. CH Robinson trimmed their 2025 spot rate outlook to +2% down from +4% which implies limited upside. DAT’s load to truck ratios are up YoY  but weekly moves are modest. Tariff policy and the noise from it are creating inventory timing and demand uncertainties. Pre-buy surges put short-term capacity crunches on the table, but they fade as fast as they appear. They are false positives.
• Response: Maintain a short-term horizon with mini bids and if possible, lock in steady lanes with carriers BEFORE seasonal influences hit.

Parcel Markets

• FedEx has announced 2025 holiday Demand (Peak) surcharges (late Sep–mid Jan) with higher fees than last year. UPS has not published their peak fees, which is unusual. If you use the United States Postal Service, they normally apply a holiday surcharge from mid-October to mid-January (10/5-1/18). According to Supply Chain Dive, you can expect to see rolling updates and some volatility depending on the seasonal influences.  Fuel surcharge tables continue to update every week and must be monitored on a weekly basis for changes and trends.
• Response: Try and model carton profiles against FedEx’s published surcharge tables. I would suggest that you build a “potential what-if” line in your transportation budgets and depending on your spend and capabilities, consider regional parcel carriers for zones where surcharges bite hardest.

Air cargo

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows modest year-on-year demand growth into June with capacity also up—pointing to balanced conditions and limited rate pressure barring any ocean disruptions.

• Response: Hold air just for exceptions (launches, promos, urgent replenishment). Pre-book space only for known peaks; otherwise use spot rates selectively.

Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) Market Outlook

• Volume: TRAFFIX forecasts LTL volumes up 3–4%, and rates rising 5–7% in 2025.
• Rates: Actual increases have been range bound between 1–3%, driven by pricing discipline, with pockets of negotiation possible.
• Classification: The shift toward density-based pricing will make dimensions and weights especially important going forward. This means more attention on product data and classifications.
• Capacity: Over the past two years, LTL carriers invested heavily in terminals and capacity. Market volatility has delayed some of the expansions. Don’t expect any new capacity anytime soon.
• Competition: Amazon is building out its nationwide LTL network, especially inbound. Their focus is on tech-driven efficiency and space utilization. This is signal to incumbents. FedEx Freight is preparing to operate as an independent entity in 2026, potentially reshaping competitive behavior

Volume LTL (Shipments between LTL and Full-Truckload)

• “Volume LTL” (VLTL) isn’t separately tracked, however with the recent move to density-based pricing, pricing for mid-size shipments is becoming more precise and potentially higher.
• As Amazon expands their LTL footprint, volume LTL services may benefit, especially for shipments between 6 pallets to a partial truckload.
• Watch for more tailored solutions and rate flexibility in this segment.
• We are seeing more “dynamic pricing” being put in place that limits classification impacts and helps the most on volume (>4 pallets) shipments.

Fuel & surcharges (all modes)

• The U.S. Energy Information Administration shows Diesel has been range-bound lately and absent a crude shock, expect stable-to-sideways fuel costs into year-end with normal winter variability. This should keep carrier fuel surcharges steady.
• Response: Track U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly prints.

What This Means for You & Your Strategy

1. Check your shipment mix:   If you handle mid-size loads, explore volume-based discounts or optimized density pricing—Freight of All Kinds (FAK)’s especially under new NMFC classifications.
2. Cleanup your data: Ensure your data is clean to benefit from AI-based pricing models.
3. Negotiate smarter: With LTL carriers increasing rates modestly, there’s room to lock in early contracts for fixed volumes or lanes, especially before peak season volatility.
4. Monitor competitor moves: Amazon’s expansion and FedEx Freight’s spin-off may shift the LTL landscape—keep an eye on pricing, capacity, and service changes.
5. Plan for TL stability: Without a demand shock, expect TL rates to hold or rise slightly. Have spot coverage for disruptions and lock in contract commitments early.
6. Watch tariff-driven shifts: Trade negotiations could jolt volumes temporarily—be ready to flex capacity or hedge with spot markets when/if needed.

Hopefully this article will help you plan better for the next 6 months and possibly cause you to look at and adjust your transportation network more often. Riverside Logistics is highly experienced with transportation planning and network analysis and would love to have an opportunity to help you. For personalized consultation, please contact us at 804-474-7700 Option 4 and request to speak with a transportation specialist.