As we enter 2026, most shippers like you are finalizing budgets, reviewing routing guides, and preparing for annual RFP cycles. After several years of volatility from pandemic-era surges to prolonged freight recessions the transportation markets for full truckload (FTL) and less-than-truckloads (LTL) are nearing an inflection point. Our focus in this article will be on truckload capacity cycles, contract vs. spot strategy and the inflation impacts.
The key question for shippers is not just “Where are rates headed,” it’s: “Is your routing guide built for this market?” As stated, in this article, we will break down what to expect in 2026 across truckload capacity cycles, contract vs. spot strategies, and inflation-driven cost pressures and importantly how to budget accordingly.
Let us start with truckload capacity cycles where the market is tightening.
The truckload market is cyclical. Periods of excess capacity (soft markets) are followed by tightening capacity and rate acceleration (tight markets). Where are we headed in 2026? After a prolonged period of carrier exits, reduced new truck orders, margin compression and lower spot rates, capacity is gradually tightening. What this means for the shippers is that rejection rates for tenders are likely to rise, spot market volatility will increase, contract compliance may decline if rates move upward quickly and smaller carriers may prioritize higher-paying freight. The Budget Implications are such that Shippers should plan for mid-single-digit rate increases in core lanes, regional imbalances causing double-digit increases in select markets and higher accessorial enforcement (detention, layover, TONU). Budget buffers are no longer optional but rather they are strategic protection.
Contract vs. Spot Strategy: Rethink the Mix
In soft markets, shippers often lean heavily into contract freight to secure low fixed rates. In tight markets, the spot market can either become a safety valve or a budget risk. The 2026 Strategic Shift in a tightening environment would be to avoid overcommitting to ultra-low contract rates because this can backfire. Carriers may start to reject a higher percentage of tenders. They may also push to renegotiate in the Contract’s mid-cycle because they must start to prioritize more profitable freight than yours. Meanwhile, relying too heavily on spot markets exposes you to surges in pricing, seasonal spikes, and disruptions due to weather.
Our Budget Recommendation
If you want a resilient 2026 routing-guide then it should include the following:
1.) a diversified core carrier portfolio.
2.) a Primary + secondary set of carriers with realistic rate levels.
3.) A defined spot allocation strategy (10–20% depending on network volatility).
And lastly, a dynamic benchmarking process against current market data. The goal is not the lowest rate it is the highest compliance at a predictable cost.
Do not forget Inflation Pressures: The Hidden Cost Drivers
Even if linehaul rates move modestly, underlying cost structures are shifting. Here are the Key Inflationary Factors in 2026; Fuel Volatility, diesel remains sensitive to global energy markets and regulatory changes. Insurance & Claims Costs, court verdicts that provide nuclear options and rising premiums are pressuring carriers. Equipment & Maintenance, higher equipment prices and repair costs are increasing breakeven rates. Labor Pressures, driver wages remain sticky even in softer demand cycles. As a Budget Planning Tip instead of focusing only on base rate increases, model your fuel surcharge volatility scenarios. Look at potential accessorial creep for your specific additional needs. Determine related regional labor constraints. Lastly, take a hard look at service premium lanes (food-grade, hazmat, high-security, refrigerated/temp controlled). Remember, small percentage shifts compound quickly across annual freight spend.
RFP Season: Strategic vs. Tactical Procurement
The first quarter of 2026 is not just the budget season; its routing guide reset season. Shippers who treat RFPs as purely rate-driven events will more than likely see lower first-round bids, higher Q2 rejections and increased spot exposure by summer. If a shipper treats their RFPs strategically then they will focus on carrier financial stability, network alignment, historical compliance, and the true cost-to-serve. In 2026, procurement maturity will directly impact margin stability.
What Should You Budget For in 2026?
Here is a practical framework. If the Cost Component is Base Linehaul, look for 3-7% increases in tightening markets. If you use the spot markets with your exposure you should plan for 10-20% rate volatility. Fuel surcharges should be modeled for the bands that hit you the hardest. Assessorial costs will follow a 5-10% contingency depending on which ones you use the most. Most importantly you need to factor in rejection risks and build a competent depth of backup carriers. The biggest mistake shippers make is to do nothing and think that the 2025 softness will last indefinitely.
Final Thought: Stability is more important than getting the Lowest Rate
The 2026 freight market is not shaping up to be a crisis year, but it will not be a shipper’s paradise either. The winners will be organizations that build balanced routing guides, avoid rate shock by planning early and diversify their carrier portfolios. Align your procurement with real market conditions. So, Is Your Routing Guide Built for This Market? If your 2026 freight strategy is still anchored to last year’s assumptions, it may already be outdated. Now is the time to stress-test your carrier mix, determine lane-level exposure, assess spot reliance, and build budget buffers. In a tightening cycle, preparation tends to beat reaction every time.
Navigating a tightening freight cycle requires more than rate negotiation — it requires market intelligence and disciplined execution. Riverside Logistics deals with these markets’ day in and day out and can provide fact-based, experience-driven individual insight specifically tailored for your business. Contact us at or call Jim Durfee at 804-335-8891 for more information.
