Riverside Logistics

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What Logistics issues will have the biggest impact on you in 2023?

This year in Logistics could turn out to be a tale of two cities, “What you know” versus “What you don’t know”. There’s a lot of uncertainty about the economy and what’s happening on the world’s stage.

We do know that the Logistics Industry has had to evolve over the last couple years and 2023 will be no different as we move into an uncertain economy and the threat of recession. Your (logistics) focus should be on developing resilience, and reliability in your supply chain. COVID-19 was the test and it forced us all to adopt new business models and outlooks.

Here are some things that can impact your individual supply chain.

Merger and acquisition activity- Logistics companies grew fast and furiously during the Pandemic. This rapid growth gained a lot of attention from private equity firms looking to invest in fast-growing firms. Look for more of the same in 2023.

Expanded offerings- A key driver of change is how expectations of customers have evolved. This has caused Logistics companies to believe that their customers want a broader set of services. This can happen either by extending services portfolios (deep), or by expanding existing services across geographies, industries, or modes (wide). There will be continued emphasis by Logistics companies to go both “deep” and “wide” in 2023 to meet customer demands and needs.

Normal carrier supply cycles- During the pandemic, the cycles for transporting a load were unpredictable. You should expect a return to normal cycles in 2023.  With stable capacity brokers and shippers can become more selective in matching carriers to loads.

Technology as a key driver- Shippers turned to technology with logistics partners in 2022. 2023 requires more of the same. With a TMS (Transportation Management System), a company can handle their freight more effectively to meet customer’s demands for shorter delivery times. Technology makes it possible to automate processes like paying drivers faster, that used to be handled manually (on paper). This frees the labor pool to focus on more value-added projects. Logistics industries are more automated, and less manually intensive. The industry was traditionally an “old school sector” with lots of paper driven processes. Now, it has been pushed into the digital age by a mix of factors, including customer demand, labor shortages and the need to be able to do more with less.

Sustainability- Shippers are dealing with policy changes in 2023 and a growing interest related to environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards. Retailers have made strong ESG commitments in upcoming years. Increasing environmental regulations and consumer pressures to bring down pollution and greenhouse emissions are forcing the logistics industry to reconfigure and innovate to become “green”. It can also raise costs.

Help Wanted and Needed – Companies are continually required to come up with new ways to attract, hire and retain valuable human resources. Warehouses struggle to keep positions filled and the ongoing driver shortage has the transportation sector feeling similar pain. This will continue unabated in 2023.

Resiliency- Companies will (and should) focus more on building networks that can withstand disruption. Supply Chains face disruptive events every day, these events can add up to consequences for and within the organization. Logistics and supply chains will continue to face countless and unpredictable disruptions in 2023, including the economy, weather events, and geopolitical issues. You must try and build a network that can deal effectively with disruptions.

Reliable Logistics Partners- More companies learned the value of having reliable logistics partners during the Pandemic. These relationships can go a long way to help companies navigate the ever-changing transportation environment.

Digital data and visibility- Digitization prepared companies for mining data. This will facilitate intelligent decision-making. Data analytics provides visibility to customers. This is one of the biggest challenges for shippers today. It’s difficult to know what’s going on in the chain. By digitizing supply chain process and collecting the data through the life of a load, shippers have (full) visibility on their shipment. In 2023, digitization, data, and visibility will become more prevalent, and increasingly faster and accurate.

Reshoring/nearshoring- Reshoring/Nearshoring emphasis has increased over the past couple of years. Driven by tension between the US and China, spikes in shipping costs, the pandemic’s effects on global supply chains, and concerns about sustainability companies have relocated from Asia to Mexico/US to lower transit times and reduce risk. Proximity allows goods to be transported (more often) over the road at competitive prices. This emphasis will continue driven by more “Black Swan” events.

Diesel prices- The price of US diesel fuel rose significantly (roughly 55%) in the first half of 2022. The Russia-Ukraine conflict was a chief cause. In addition, International rule IMO 2020, with Sulphur content restrictions, will take further effect and businesses moving cargo will have to find ways to adapt to this rule as it raises prices for fuel.

Capacity- 2023 probably won’t bring an increase in the supply of transportation capacity. As insurance, fuel and maintenance costs continue to rise, and demand falters, supply may shrink as smaller carriers struggle, forcing them to either merge or quit operations.

Accelerating inflation- Interest rate hikes, enacted to slow consumer spending and inflation, have started to depress the U.S. economy. Transport companies must navigate this moderation in demand. Going forward, the struggles will continue as we enter a possible recession in 2023.

Ongoing Semi-Truck Shortage  

A change in the composition of the national labor market was felt all over the world. This pressure puts semi-truck manufacturers behind the curve. The U.S. transportation industry requires roughly 200,000 new vehicles a year to maintain an adequate age of its fleet. During the height of the Pandemic, truck manufacturers missed these replacement levels, forcing trucking companies to use older vehicles. This year, manufacturers are on track to meet the transportation industry’s replacement demands. However, the current backlog of semi-truck orders is the largest ever. Carriers typically expand their fleet sizes when spot rates are high. They couldn’t do that this year.

Consumer Spending- The way people spend their money drives the transportation world. Consumer spending patterns are starting to shift. When the pandemic hit, consumer purchases of durable goods spiked. E-Commerce transactions set all-time highs. This shift required a massive response from trucking companies and their drivers. Recently, with rising inflation and no pandemic restrictions, consumer buying habits have shifted again. Now consumers are spending less money on durable products which require trucking and more on services/experiences which don’t.

Spot rates– Freight demand has outpaced the supply of trucks. This trend will probably continue into 2023 as consumers paying with credit at an accelerated rate feel the effects of inflation. It’s likely that consumer spending will slow across the board in 2023, decreasing the transportation industry’s workload and keeping spot prices low.

Managing Logistics in 2023

Based on the above topics there will be plenty of challenges to overcome in 2023. It won’t be easy, but it might present a good opportunity to make improvements and calibrate your supply chain for the future. To navigate 2023 successfully try to keep the following in mind:

  1. Keep your transportation providers fully informed
  2. Prioritize flexibility when planning your shipments
  3. Work with a diverse group of freight carriers and 3PL’s

A good supply chain partner like Riverside Logistics can really help you meet the challenges in 2023. Pleased call us at 804-474-7700 Option #4 and ask for Jim Durfee, VP Business Transformation. We’re happy to look into your network and guide you through the potential 2023 logistics turmoil.

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WHERE IS THE SUPPLY CHAIN WHEN YOU NEED IT?

According to most pundits on TV, and in the news journals, just about everywhere for that matter, all you hear is that there is a recession coming. OK, so there’s a recession coming, how bad it will be is anyone’s guess. The important question for people involved with the Supply Chain, is “what will it mean to my Logistics infrastructure?”

I’ll share some thoughts on the answer to that question.

Let’s set-the-table so to speak, and list conditions as they now stand in the current logistics environment.

First, warehouse space is very tight all over in general. If you consider just the Richmond, Virginia market, its occupancy rate approaches more than 98%. The percentages may vary by market but in general, space is extremely tight. Even new warehouse space that is coming on-line over the next 18 months is already spoken for. When talking to our clients they say their inventory levels are extremely high. For some of them that’s a good thing in that it allows them to respond to demand faster than their competitors. However, on the downside, it also ties up a lot of cash. Lead times for product are starting to shorten but are still longer than normal. All this adds up to higher levels of space utilization.

In addition to space constraints the costs inside the box have escalated. Labor costs soared due to the lack of available workers. Money talks, and warehousemen will migrate to the money. If your competition is paying 10 cents more an hour, you’re seriously at risk of losing workers. When you lose a worker, then you not only have to replace them with another one, but you also must train and then do your best to retain them as well.  That takes both time and money.

As a 3PL demand for our services have never been higher. Warehouse space and labor is in short supply, but we focus on solutions for our clients and short term it will be challenging but our tools, experience and network tell us that solutions as time goes by are available. A deep understanding of your clients, a clear mission and open communication can lead to success.  The more insight and lead time you give us,  the more a 3PL can help you. Our consulting services may provide unique solutions that only a 3PL can offer.

Second, transportation supply. Trucking capacity was extremely tight and increasingly more expensive during the first half of 2022. That started to change during the second half of the year. Instead of carriers having too much business to handle and never providing capacity when we called them, they are now calling us trying to find loads. The tide has turned. Trucks are in greater supply. That’s a good sign. Service levels are improving, rates are stabilizing and, in some cases, starting to come down.

The big three factors in trucking costs are equipment, labor, and fuel. The first two, labor and equipment, are still at historical highs. Fuel prices have moderated. Since fuel is a major factor in freight costs, that is a good thing. However, new trailers have gone from ~30k each to ~55K each and lead times to get them are still over a year long. Labor is requiring more in wages. You don’t give back what you’ve already given. Please remember that there is still a shortage of truck drivers in the USA. That means the carriers must attract drivers using higher wages, benefits and better working conditions to keep and manage their workforces. We see that continuing in 2023.

The forces affecting Logistics costs and supply chain performance are counterbalancing each other. Space is tighter than normal, but transport is more readily available. A recession is looming. Meaning what? High costs for storage and handling, stable costs for transportation, moderate service level improvements.

It’s important to remember two things about this. One, the environment is fluid and can change dramatically if something unexpected happens as in a  “Black Swan event”. Whatever I tell you today, is a best guess based on what I know …. today. Second, no matter what happens, if you plan and try to insulate yourself from supply chain and logistics shocks, you’ll be better off than if you don’t and do nothing.

What should you do to manage your logistics to plan for the next 12 months? Here are some suggestions:

  1. I would highly recommend that you find a 3PL that understands the markets for Transportation and Warehousing. Then take the time to develop a good working relationship with them (the 3PL). Use the 3PL’s market knowledge to your advantage. Remember that 3PL’s typically deal with a variety of clients, transport providers, and warehouses. This allows them to provide insight into where markets for transport and warehousing are directionally moving. They probably see these movements a lot sooner than you will and can provide early warning capabilities to you. 3PL’s, if they’re tied into their clients, can get a glimpse from a lot of different directions in different markets, as to what is influencing clients supply chains. The 3PL’s see how the clients handle these influencers, and basically can tell you what is working and what isn’t. This information is invaluable and if shared, can allow you to make better decisions regarding your own supply chain. Based on our experience sharing good intel about the supply chain with clients is beneficial to all parties.3PL
  2. Take advantage of the transportation marketplace by Bidding your business. If you do this utilizing a 3PL, it will afford you an opportunity to get the benefit of their market tools as well as their experience negotiating with carriers. This can provide another competitive advantage to your business as opposed to doing it yourself. If you bid your business and get client specific pricing that holds for a year, then you can make better long term pricing decisions.
  3. If you have storage needs, the market says space is at a premium. Make sure you fully understand your needs in terms of timeframe, space, handling, flow-thru etc. The better your information is the better or more realistic your cost of doing business will be. Don’t be afraid to lock in space for a longer term than usual. Unless you have a crystal ball that no one else has, it is in your best interest to lock in your costs for the long term so you can plan better. This will ensure your warehousing needs are met for a longer period of time. Moving from one space to another is expensive. Also, a 3PL can help here in a couple of ways. 3PL’s can expand with your space requirements. If they understand your type of business, they can help you navigate the supply chain as a partner and provide synergies that you can’t find and use on your own.

If I were to boil the answers down to a few, I would tell you to plan for and attack your logistics issues rather than let them attack you. Even in a dynamic environment such as now, planning will help you a lot in managing logistics. In addition, partner with a 3PL to help you provide resources and expertise to meet the demands of the logistics marketplace. If you do this, you’ll be happy that you did.

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What can Supply Chain Consultants do for me?

Consultants sometimes have a bad rap right out of the gate. After all who wants someone to tell you how to do your job or run your business?

Frankly, if your business is growing and changing you probably need a consultant to help you chart your future.

This is not a small under-taking and it can be challenging but very rewarding when approached with the correct partner. The key is understanding your objectives, what is realistic to expect as a return on your investment, and the type of knowledge that a Logistics Consultant can bring to the table.

When do you need a consultant?

Some good indicators might be the following:

  1. You are either privately held or a division of a large company in a specific market that is a new focus.
  2. You have reached 50 million dollars in sales revenue.
  3. You have primarily operated from one location.
  4. You want to grow your business by expanding geographically.
  5. You want to grow by acquisition.
  6. Your current logistics team is knowledgeable, but they have never operated multiple locations, evaluated multiple modes of transportation, or possessed the support staff to train new employees.
  7. Transportation is a big part of your total cost of going to market.
  8. The value of your business in either service or manufacturing is very high per employee.
  9. You have product coming through a port but are uncertain of what ports are best and why.
  10. Your Supply Chain Costs are increasing dramatically in Warehouse and or Transportation and you do not have a formal way to measure your investment.

Let’s look at and talk about Supply Chain and Logistics Management Consultants (LMC). They are SME (subject matter experts) on how to move your Logistics Network from where it is today, to where it needs to be in the future. Network evaluations are relatively painless, but they take time to complete properly. For example, if you feel that a 6-week consultation will allow you to plan for and adapt to a new network, don’t waste the money.

If, however, you realize that the process could and should take up to 6 months to fully realize, then go for it. Because like most things that are keys to your business success, they take time.

Supply Chain costs are rising, becoming more complex and now demand more automation. It only makes sense to have someone who has been down the path before, who can guide your team and bring in expertise if your current management does not provide that expertise. As your business expands, its demands for adequate supply chain management increase. These increases are like stepping-stones. They go up in increments or buckets. For example, you may have to go from a single warehouse to multiple warehouses. Or quite the opposite, you may have grown by opening small warehouses throughout your network and now need to take a hard look at a smaller number of warehouses, maybe even just one, with a larger single set of inventories. And, oh by the way, you may need a WMS (warehouse management system) and a TMS (transportation management system) or an upgrade to both if you already have some in place. Additionally, how do you, or how will you, handle managing you transportation needs. Will you do it “in-house” or utilize external management?. What are the upsides and downsides of each approach? How have you accommodated supply chain risk? Did you factor in the trade-offs between operating different (multiple) facilities as opposed to one large facility? This logic also holds for how, when and where you source your product. If the pandemic has taught you anything, it has taught you the value of operating a flexible supply chain for both sourcing as well as moving product through your system.

So how does a LMC Consultant provide you with value?

Here’s how: If competent, they can create a roadmap of “AS IS” and “TO BE” showing how you stack up against industry baselines, how you maximize your competitive supply chain profile and how to develop a sustainable “TO BE” supply chain that helps rather than hinders your business as it expands.

All in all, the question is not whether you need a LMC consultation, its whether you can afford NOT to hire and use one. Market conditions are moving faster than ever. How long would it take your management team to learn what they need to know? Savings in speed can provide a lot of value. Rather than debating a topic for a year a consultant can provide solutions much faster. How much is that worth to your business? If you do not hire a consultant will opportunities vanish?

Typical savings that we encounter from our own consulting efforts usually generate savings in Supply Chain costs, NET savings, of between 15% and 25% long term. If you’re in it for the long term and you have a business that is growing, you need to strongly consider hiring a LMC Consultant to help steer your business through the myriad of supply chain issues affecting your business now and in the foreseeable future.

Riverside Logistics, has been in business for over 25 years and has accumulated a very “long and strong” set of capabilities to analyze, recommend, and execute a Logistics plan for you company. Give us a call at 804-474-770 extension 82 . We are here to help!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Riverside Logistics is licensed as a wholesale distributor of prescription drugs and/or devices in Virginia and in 32 other states.

As a third party logistics (3PL) provider, Riverside Logistics contracts with our customers to handle their warehousing and distribution needs. Some of our customer’s products require us to be licensed not only by our own state, but also by the states we ship our customer’s products. Riverside Logistics is licensed as a wholesale distributor of prescription drugs and/or devices in Virginia and in 32 other states.

Recently, federal legislation known as the Drug Supply Chain Security Act was passed which prohibited states from regulating 3PL’s as wholesale distributors. The FDA is currently developing federal standards for licensing 3PL’s which is expected to be completed in late November 2015. Two states, California and Florida, have already developed their own license requirements for 3PL’s and Riverside Logistics has begun the process of meeting those requirements and applying for the licenses.

Riverside Logistics will continue to monitor both federal and state licensure requirements to ensure we meet the necessary requirements to provide our customers with the most efficient, cost effective services available.

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