In Part 2 (The Shift), we examine how sustained cost pressure is already reducing available capacity—and why that shift tends to accelerate quickly.
As rising costs persist, their impact is no longer theoretical—it is actively reshaping the supply side of the freight market.
Capacity is beginning to tighten.
Carrier exits are increasing. Data from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration shows elevated revocations and declining net growth in active motor carriers following the post-pandemic surge. Smaller and undercapitalized operators have been most affected.
Spot rates have lagged cost realities. Market data from DAT Freight & Analytics indicates that spot rates in several segments have hovered near or below all-in operating costs for extended periods—an unsustainable condition for much of the carrier base.
Financing and operating conditions are tightening. Higher interest rates and stricter lending standards are limiting fleet expansion and accelerating consolidation, particularly among small fleets.
Private fleet expansion is reducing for-hire capacity. Large shippers continue to invest in dedicated fleets, effectively removing capacity from the open market and increasing competition for what remains.
How Capacity Tightens
Capacity shifts tend to follow a consistent pattern:
- Smaller carriers exit
- Remaining carriers reduce exposure to low-rate freight
- Tender rejections begin to rise
- Service variability increases
- Pricing power shifts
This process is already underway.
Why This Matters
Capacity does not tighten in a straight line—it compresses gradually, then reacts quickly.
By the time disruption is widely visible, options are already limited.
Next: The Rate Impact
In Part 3, we outline how tightening capacity translates into higher rates—and why early action materially reduces both cost and risk.
Navigating a tightening freight cycle requires more than rate negotiation — it requires market intelligence and disciplined execution. Riverside Logistics deals with these markets’ day in and day out and can provide fact-based, experience-driven individual insight specifically tailored for your business. Contact us at or call Jim Durfee at 804-335-8891 for more information.
(Next month’s article will be PART 3 of this 3 PART Series.)
PART 3: The Action – Why Acting Early Protects Cost and Service
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